根据中国信保《浙江省2019年一季度出口信用风险总结》报告，一季度，浙江信保短期出口信用保险项下共接到浙江省企业相关报损案件近700宗，同比增长约32%，报损金额较大且同比增长约70%，海外信用风险显著攀升。
究竟是哪些国家风险最高呢？以下给大家归纳一下贸易风险急剧上升的国家或地区，请在与这些国家客人做生意时加强风控意识、严守付款底线。
亚洲
印度、韩国、香港、巴基斯坦、印度尼西亚、阿联酋、马来西亚、斯里兰卡、泰国等国家（地区）案件数量及报损金额均同比大幅上升。
从出险率来看，浙江省企业出口较多的亚洲国别中，斯里兰卡、巴基斯坦、印度、阿联酋、韩国、印度尼西亚等国家（地区）风险水平尤为显著。
——《浙江省2019年一季度出口信用风险总结》
01
印度
根据浙江信保数据，一季度亚洲地区报损案件数量及报损金额显著高企，大额案件频发，其中，印度报损激增，无论是报损案件数量还是报损金额，都是亚洲第一。
印度当前的主要经贸方向是发展国内产业，搞“Make in India”，促进出口，减少进口，所以不断设置各种贸易壁垒。印度政府在过去2年内已针对超过400项产品加征关税，范围从农产品到手机零组件，再到太阳能面板等工业产品。
就在不久前，印度中央污染控制局以违反电子废弃物管理法(E-waste Management Rules)为由，撤销了10家大企业的进口许可。这10家公司分别为：苹果、三星、vivo、惠普、摩托罗拉、佳能、Eltech Appliances Pvt Ltd.、ETA General Pvt Ltd.、BE Office Automation Products Pvt Ltd.、Tara Consultants Pvt Ltd.。这些公司出口至印度大批智能手机及电子产品等，金额高达500亿卢比(约7.3亿美元)仍无法通关进口。
电动车产品方面，电动巴士及卡车整车的基本进口关税税率在2020年4月将翻倍调升至50%；电动巴士及卡车、客用电动车、电动2轮及3轮车的零组件税率，则将在明年4年自目前的10%调升至15%；交流(AC)及直流(DC)充电器、发动机及发动控制机、动力控制器等电动车制造业所需零组件，则将在2021年4月自目前的零关税改为征收15%的税率。此外，电动车的电池模组基本进口税率也将在2021年4月自目前的5%调升至15%，电动车的锂离子电池税率则将在同时翻倍调升至10%。
在太阳能产品方面，印度政府针对进口太阳能电池及模组，自去年7月底起至2019年7月29日止征收20%的防卫措施税。
此外，印度消费性电子产品及家用设备制造商协会还在要求印度政府调升电视机、空调设备、电冰箱及洗衣机等家电终端产品的基本进口关税。
另一方面，美国已放出消息，计划取消给予印度的普惠制待遇。这也将对印度经贸发展产生巨大影响。
早些时候，印度还认为自己将从中美经贸摩擦中获益，现在真是风水轮流转了。
02
孟加拉
孟加拉的主要问题在于外汇短缺，经常账户巨额赤字，银行缺美元。偏偏孟加拉的进口付款基本均要求使用信用证，以至于在中国公司对孟加拉出口的业务中，经常发生信用证正常交单下不按时付款的情况，部分信誉不佳的进口商和开证行，借助挑剔单据进行无理拒付的比例竟高至100%。
就在不久前，我国驻孟加拉国经济商务参赞处多次发出信用证重大风险提示，孟加拉原农民银行（The Farmers Bank Limited，现更名为帕德玛银行Padma Bank），去年以来出现较为频繁的信用证违约恶性事件，给中国企业在孟国际贸易造成巨大损失。这个情况已经不是信用证欠款个案了！
所以与孟加拉企业做生意，一定要严审信用证，同时做好银行的背景调查，选择商业信誉较好的银行。
03
印尼
印尼号称是世界最难清关国家之一，这两年红灯期特别漫长，同时对于中国产品原产地证的退证查询也已经成为了一种新型的贸易壁垒手段。
去年印尼盾大跌，今年年初又大幅贬值，买家在货币贬值的情况下出现了习惯性的拖欠。此外，印尼大选也增添了对外来的不确定性。
欧洲
土耳其、俄罗斯、英国、西班牙、荷兰、罗马尼亚等国家（地区）案件个数及报损金额均同比大幅上升。
从出险率来看，浙江省企业出口较多的欧洲国别中，瑞典、土耳其、俄罗斯等风险水平较为显著。
——《浙江省2019年一季度出口信用风险总结》
04
土耳其
去年货币领跌新兴市场的土耳其今年仍然没有止住跌势。
3月22日，土耳其里拉兑美元一度下跌超过6.5%，最终收盘下挫逾5%，年内跌幅扩大至8%以上，成为继阿根廷比索之后全球表现最差的货币。3月以来土耳其的外汇储备大幅下降，两周时间降幅为6.7%，减少了63亿美元，至285亿美元。
在这样的情况下，土耳其买家拒收货物及拖欠货款案件频发，国别风险显著攀升。
05
英国
英国央行总裁日前在接受采访时被问及无协议退欧的风险，他表示：“目前风险高得令人担忧。”IMF警告，“无协议脱欧”是全球经济主要下行风险之一，将严重扰乱供应链并提高贸易成本，可能对英国和欧盟经济产生严重且持久的负面影响。
在关税方面，目前英国政府有种声音是，在英国无协议脱欧后，英国可以实际上按照世界贸易组织(WTO)的零关税条款进行贸易。但真的能这样吗？还是央行总裁说的：“绝对是无稽之谈”。
在汇率方面，有经济学家统计称，相比于脱欧公投前，英国GDP事实上已经损耗了约1-2.5%，大部分的损耗是来自英镑贬值，公投以来，英镑已经贬值超过10%。瑞银分析认为，脱欧的延期以及不确定性将进一步导致英镑贬值。
根据会计和商业资讯公司BDO的报告，2018年是有史以来英国零售业表现最差的一年。共计有38家连锁零售商倒闭，玩具反斗城、Poundworld等知名企业均无法幸免。2019年则更加艰难，地产顾问公司Altus Group最新公布的年报显示，预计将有超过2.3万家英国店铺在2019年关门。
非洲
尼日利亚、摩洛哥、突尼斯、南非及埃塞俄比亚等国家（地区）案件数量及报损金额均同比大幅上升。
从出险率来看，浙江省企业出口较多的非洲国别中，埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、突尼斯、摩洛哥等风险水平尤为显著。
——《浙江省2019年一季度出口信用风险总结》
06
尼日利亚
尼日利亚作为外汇管制国家，一直以来就存在进口商买不到美元的情况，经常会有尼国客人表示因为无法购汇而“不得不”拖延付款，或者说代理操作手续费特别贵。不过在4月中旬，尼日利亚的外汇储备达到了6个月来的新高，尼国客人如果还用“买不到美元”作为拖延付款的借口，就值得出口商仔细掂量一下风险了。
另一个值得注意的地方是，尼日利亚中央银行3月5日公布纺织品进口结汇禁令，意图重新振兴尼日利亚纺织工业、棉花及成衣业，进而提高尼日利亚就业机会数量，解决尼日利亚的社会、经济问题。
目前该禁令已经生效，尼日利亚外汇市场参与交易的银行及外汇交易商需要依据指令，不得向纺织品进口商提供外汇结售。并且政府也将严打纺织品由周边国家（如塞内加尔、加纳、赞比亚等国）走私进入尼日利亚市场的行为。
拉丁美洲
从案件数量及报损金额来看，阿根廷、哥伦比亚、墨西哥、巴西及秘鲁均居于拉丁美洲地区前五位。其中，阿根廷、哥伦比亚、秘鲁及智利等国家（地区）的案件数量及报损金额均较去年同期呈现较大增幅。
从出险率来看，浙江省出口较多的国别中，阿根廷、哥伦比亚、巴拉圭等国风险偏高。
——《浙江省2019年一季度出口信用风险总结》
07
阿根廷
阿根廷比索去年跌的凶，今年也没能起死回生，该货币今年下跌约14%，是全球表现最差的货币，没有之一。与此同时，3月通胀率加速至4.7%，截至3月的12个月通胀率达到近55%，通胀攀升趋势削弱了民众的消费能力。其经济增长也非常疲弱，在2018年的最后三个月，经济萎缩超过6%，今年初以来，许多企业纷纷开始申请破产保护。而3月末公布的官方数据显示，贫困率已攀升至32%。
08
巴拉圭
巴拉圭进口协会称，因为本国投资意愿低落、人民购买力下降、消费市场显见萎缩等因素，2019年第1季度，巴拉圭进口已减少11.4%，预期整年度进口可能下降20%。3月至4月11日，巴拉圭币兑美元贬值3.7%，引发市场之关注。
北美洲
一季度，北美洲整体风险水平较去年同期有所上升。美国推行逆全球化政策主张，中美贸易摩擦影响显现，美国零售行业破产提速，破产案件日趋复杂。1-3月，北美洲报损案件数量及报损金额均居于全球洲别第三位，且分别同比增长54%和48%。
——《浙江省2019年一季度出口信用风险总结》
09
美国
追踪新店开张和关门情况的研究机构Coresight Research最近公布的数据显示，截至4月初，美国零售商已宣布关闭5994家门店，新开2641家店铺。相比之下，2018年全年有5864家门店关闭，3239家门店开业。这意味着，美国今年关闭的店铺数量已经超过了2018年的总和。
Coresight Research创始人兼首席执行官Deborah Weinswig表示，2018年的关停数量较低实际上是一种反常现象，预计2019年门店关闭速度将加快，到年底将达到1.2万家左右。
出口建议
第一、密切关注该国宏观政治经济动态，做好风险跟踪，以便及时调整出口市场及出运节奏；
第二、开展信用交易之前务必向买方索要营业执照及合同签署人的护照信息，关注中小企业买方风险及破产风险，谨防出现买方蓄意诈骗或无法联系的情况；
第三、做好风险评估，在买方突下大额订单，明显超出其经营能力的交易中审慎决策；对历史付款正常、近期付款开始有所延迟的买方，应密切监控履约，及时主张权利。
A third of 2019 will soon be over. Has business been good since the start of the year? The recent credit and insurance data of zhejiang province, a major foreign trade province, are not too optimistic:
According to the report "summary of export credit risks of zhejiang province in the first quarter of 2019" by China credit insurance co., LTD., zhejiang credit insurance co., LTD. Received nearly 700 cases of reported losses of zhejiang enterprises under short-term export credit insurance in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of about 32%.
Which countries are most at risk? Here is a summary of the countries or regions where trade risks have risen sharply. Please strengthen the awareness of risk control and strictly observe the bottom line of payment when doing business with customers from these countries.
Asia
India, South Korea, Hong Kong, Pakistan, Indonesia, united Arab emirates, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and other countries (regions) the number of cases and reported losses are significantly increased year-on-year.
From the risk rate, among the Asian countries where zhejiang enterprises export more, the risk level of Sri Lanka, Pakistan, India, united Arab emirates, South Korea, Indonesia and other countries (regions) is particularly significant.
-- summary of export credit risks of zhejiang province in the first quarter of 2019
01
India
According to data from zhejiang xinbao, the number of reported loss cases and reported loss amount in Asia in the first quarter were significantly high, and large number of cases occurred frequently. Among them, the number of reported loss cases and reported loss amount in India surged sharply, and both the number of reported loss cases and reported loss amount were the first in Asia.
At present, the main economic and trade direction of India is to develop domestic industries and "Make in India" to promote exports and reduce imports. Therefore, various trade barriers are constantly set up. The government has imposed tariffs on more than 400 products in the past two years, ranging from agricultural products to mobile phone components to industrial products such as solar panels.
The move comes after India's central pollution control authority revoked import licences from 10 large companies for breaching e-waste Management Rules. The 10 companies are: apple, samsung, vivo, HP, MOTOROLA, Canon, Eltech Appliances Pvt Ltd., ETA General Pvt Ltd., BE Office Automation Products Pvt Ltd., Tara Consultants Pvt Ltd. The companies export a large number of smartphones and electronic products to India, which still cannot be imported through customs for as much as 50 billion rupees ($730 million).
For electric vehicles, the basic import tariff on electric buses and trucks will double to 50% by April 2020. The zero component duty rate for electric buses and trucks, passenger electric vehicles, and electric 2 - and 3-wheeled vehicles will be raised to 15 percent in the next four years from the current 10 percent; AC and DC chargers, engines and engine controls, power controllers and other components needed by the electric vehicle industry will be subject to a 15% tariff in April 2021 from the current zero tariff. In addition, the basic import tax on battery modules for electric cars will be raised to 15% from the current 5% in April 2021, while the tax on lithium-ion batteries for electric cars will double to 10% at the same time.
On solar products, the Indian government imposed a 20 per cent defence measure tax on imports of solar cells and modules from the end of last July until 29 July 2019.
In addition, the consumer electronics and home equipment manufacturers association is asking the Indian government to raise basic import tariffs on household appliances such as television sets, air conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines.
On the other hand, the United States has announced plans to withdraw GSP treatment from India. This will also have a huge impact on India's economic and trade development.
Earlier, India thought it would benefit from trade frictions between China and the us. Now the tables are turning.
02
Bangladesh
Bangladesh's main problem is a shortage of foreign exchange, a huge current-account deficit and a shortage of dollars in its Banks. However, the import payment of Bangladesh basically requires the use of l/c, so that in the export business of Chinese companies to Bangladesh, it often happens that the payment is not made on time under the normal presentation of l/c. Some importers and issuing Banks with poor reputation make unreasonable refusal of payment with the help of selective documents as high as 100%.
Not long ago, China's economic and commercial counselor's office in Bangladesh repeatedly issued a reminder of major risks in letters of credit. The Farmers Bank Limited (now renamed Padma Bank) has suffered from frequent l/c breaches since last year, causing huge losses to Chinese enterprises in Bangladesh's international trade. This is no longer the case of l/c arrears!
Therefore, when doing business with bangladeshi enterprises, we must strictly review the letter of credit, and do a good job in the background investigation of Banks, so as to choose a bank with good commercial reputation.
03
Indonesia
Indonesia is known as one of the world's most difficult customs clearance countries, the two years red light period is particularly long, and for the Chinese product certificate of origin of the withdrawal of inquiry has become a new trade barrier means.
The rupiah plunged last year and has fallen sharply since the start of this year, with buyers habitually defaulting on devalued currencies. Moreover, Indonesia's election adds to the uncertainty about the outside world.
The European
Turkey, Russia, the United Kingdom, Spain, the Netherlands, Romania and other countries (regions) the number of cases and reported losses are significantly increased year-on-year.
From the risk rate point of view, zhejiang province enterprises export more European countries, Sweden, Turkey, Russia and other risk levels are more significant.
-- summary of export credit risks of zhejiang province in the first quarter of 2019
04
Turkey
Turkey, whose currency led emerging-market declines last year, hasn't stopped its slide this year.
On March 22, the Turkish lira fell more than 6.5 per cent against the dollar before closing down more than 5 per cent, extending its fall for the year to more than 8 per cent, making it the world's worst performing currency after the Argentine peso. Turkey's reserves have fallen sharply since march, falling 6.7 per cent in two weeks, or $6.3bn, to $28.5 billion.
Under such circumstances, Turkish buyers reject goods and default payment cases frequently, country risk significantly increased.
05
The British
Asked in an interview about the risks of a no-deal brexit, the governor of the bank of England said: "the risks are worryingly high." The IMF warned that a "no deal brexit" was one of the main downside risks to the global economy, severely disrupting supply chains and raising the cost of trade, with potentially serious and lasting negative effects on the UK and eu economies.
On tariffs, there is now a voice in the UK government that, after a no-deal brexit, the UK could in effect trade on the world trade organisation's tariff-free terms. But can it? "Absolute nonsense," said the central banker.
In terms of exchange rate, some economists estimate that compared with before the brexit vote, British GDP has actually lost about 1-2.5%. Most of the loss is from the depreciation of the pound, which has lost more than 10% since the referendum. Analysts at ubs said the delay and uncertainty would further weaken sterling.
According to BDO, the accountancy and business information company, 2018 was the worst year ever for UK retail. A total of 38 retail chains went out of business, including well-known companies such as toys "r" us and Poundworld. 2019 is a tougher year, with more than 23,000 UK shops expected to close in 2019, according to the latest annual report from property consultancy Altus Group.
Africa
In Nigeria, Morocco, Tunisia, South Africa, Ethiopia and other countries (regions), the number of cases and the amount of reported losses increased significantly compared with the same period last year.
From the risk rate, the risk level of Ethiopia, Kenya, Tunisia, Morocco and other African countries where zhejiang enterprises export more are particularly significant.
-- summary of export credit risks of zhejiang province in the first quarter of 2019
06
Nigeria
As a country with foreign exchange control, there has always been a situation that importers cannot buy us dollars. There are often Nigerian customers who say that they "have to" delay payment because they cannot purchase foreign exchange, or the handling fee of the agency operation is very expensive. But with Nigeria's foreign-exchange reserves at a six-month high in mid-april, it is worth weighing the risks for exporters if customers still use "no dollars" as an excuse to delay payments.
Another noteworthy point is that on March 5, the central bank of Nigeria announced a ban on foreign exchange settlement of textile imports, with the intention of revitalizing Nigeria's textile industry, cotton and garment industries, thereby increasing the number of jobs in Nigeria and solving Nigeria's social and economic problems.
Now that the ban is in effect, Banks and traders in Nigeria's foreign exchange market are instructed not to sell foreign exchange to textile importers. The government will also crack down on the smuggling of textiles into the Nigerian market from neighbouring countries such as Senegal, Ghana and Zambia.
Latin America
Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil and Peru are among the top five countries in Latin America in terms of number of cases and reported damages. Among them, Argentina, Colombia, Peru and Chile and other countries (regions) the number of cases and the amount of reported losses are larger than the same period last year.
From the risk rate, zhejiang province exports more countries, Argentina, Colombia, Paraguay and other countries on the high risk.
-- summary of export credit risks of zhejiang province in the first quarter of 2019
07
Argentina
The Argentine peso, which fell sharply last year, has also failed to recover this year, falling about 14 per cent, making it one of the world's worst performers. Meanwhile, inflation accelerated to 4.7 per cent in March, bringing it to nearly 55 per cent in the 12 months to march, as the upward trend eroded spending power. Its economic growth has also been very weak, with the economy contracting by more than 6% in the last three months of 2018, and many companies have been filing for bankruptcy protection since the start of the year. Official figures released at the end of march showed that the poverty rate had climbed to 32%.
08
Paraguay
Paraguay's imports fell 11.4 percent in the first quarter of 2019 and are expected to fall 20 percent for the year as a whole, the Paraguayan import association said, citing low investment intentions, a decline in people's purchasing power and a marked contraction in the consumer market. The Paraguayan dollar lost 3.7% of its value against the dollar between march and April 11th, drawing attention.
In North America
Overall risk levels in North America rose in the first quarter from a year earlier. The United States implements anti-globalization policy and advocates, and the impact of trade friction between China and the United States is evident. From January to march, North America ranked third in the number of reported loss cases and the reported loss amount in the world, with year-on-year growth of 54% and 48% respectively.
-- summary of export credit risks of zhejiang province in the first quarter of 2019
09
The United States
As of early April, U.S. retailers had announced 5,994 store closures and 2,641 new stores, according to recent data from Coresight Research, which tracks store openings and closings. That compares with 5,864 store closures and 3,239 store openings in all of 2018. That means the United States has closed more stores this year than all of 2018 combined.
Deborah Weinswig, founder and CEO of Coresight Research, said the low number of closures in 2018 was actually an anomaly, with the pace of store closures expected to accelerate in 2019 to about 12,000 by the end of the year.
Export advice
First, pay close attention to the country's macro political and economic dynamics, do a good job of risk tracking, in order to timely adjust the export market and the pace of shipment;
Second, be sure to ask the buyer for the business license and passport information of the contract signatory before the credit transaction, pay attention to the buyer's risk and bankruptcy risk of small and medium-sized enterprises, and guard against the buyer's deliberate fraud or unable to contact the situation;
Third, do a good job of risk assessment, in the buyer's sudden large orders, obviously beyond its business capacity in the transaction of prudent decision; The buyer with normal payment history and a delay in the recent payment shall closely monitor the performance and promptly claim rights.