道琼斯运输类股指数(dow Jones transportation stock index)曾警告说，截至8月25日，该指数今年以来累计下跌了19%。不仅交通部门表现不佳，而且这种疲软还蔓延到了全球贸易和经济领域。
事实上，中国经济转型、全球贸易疲弱拖累全球经济复苏一直是今年的一个弱势主题。CPB荷兰经济政策研究局(Dutch bureau of economic policy research)的经济学家芬恩达尔(Paul fennendahl)估计，全球贸易额可能会在今年下半年反弹，但他预计2015年的总体增速仅为1%。
反映全球贸易疲弱的交易量和运费在今年上半年表现惨淡。荷兰经济政策研究局(Netherlands bureau for economic policy research)的数据显示，5月份全球货运量下降1.2%。在过去的5个月里，它已经出现了4次负增长，这是非常罕见的。6月份，中国CCFI出口指数跌至多年来的低点，其中中国-欧洲部分下降2.5%。自2月份以来，CCFI下降了21%。自金融危机以来，上海出口集装箱运价指数(SCFI)已跌至42%的创纪录低点。今年上半年，全球贸易额下降2%，为2014年6月以来的最低水平。仅5月份就比前一个月下降了1.2%。
航运业在下半年继续走弱。全球集装箱货运价格随后在8月份下跌。截至8月23日当周，从亚洲到地中海的货运价格下跌了32.1%，而从亚洲到美国西海岸和东海岸的货运价格分别下跌了7.9%和9.9%。这条全球最繁忙线路的运价已连续第三周下降，降幅近60%。
航运成本的下降被认为是由于集装箱船供应的增加和全球对制成品需求的下降。国际贸易状况并不是全球繁荣的标志。目前的情况不是在好转，而是在恶化。
目前的情况是，全球贸易陷入困境，全球增长正在放缓，但量化宽松和零利率都不会奏效，因为它们已经实施了多年。美国经济又开始增长了，就像第二季度一样，这让人松了一口气。现在美国的情况也越来越糟。今年前7个月，美国出口下降5.6%，至8957亿美元。
根据Cassandra ightindex的数据，在7月份下降1.6%之后，8月份北美出货量再次下降，环比下降1.2%，同比下降4.6%。卡斯用这种方式解释了北美8月份发货量下降的原因:总体而言，零售商在为秋季销售做准备，但高库存和库存与销售比率的上升导致年初订单下降。对于零售商、批发商和制造商而言，库存高于大衰退开始时的水平。企业迟早会削减库存，无论是通过增加销售还是削减订单。由于需求疲软，企业不会通过增加销售来削减订单。
全球贸易疲软将连续第三年拖累全球经济增长。在本轮全球贸易疲软之前，上一次全球贸易增速低于全球经济增速是在1985年。
世界贸易组织(world trade organization)的数据显示，自2010年出现大幅反弹以来，全球贸易年均增速仅为3%，低于1983年至2008年年均6%的增速。投资者预计，全球贸易不会反弹至2008年以前的水平。2008年，全球贸易增速是经济增速的两倍，比如2006年的8.5%，当时全球经济增速为4%。
世界贸易组织预计将下调2015年全球贸易增长预期。“很明显，全球贸易在2007年见顶，”华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)的贸易专家斯科特•米勒(Scott miller)表示。
The dow Jones transportation stock index has warned that it is down 19% year-to-date through Aug. 25. Not only did the transport sector underperform, but the weakness spread to global trade and the economy.
In fact, China's economic transformation, weak global trade drag the global economic recovery has been a weak theme this year. Paul fennendahl, an economist at the CPB's Dutch bureau of economic policy research, estimates that global trade volumes may rebound in the second half of the year, but predicts overall growth of just 1% in 2015.
Volumes and shipping fees, which reflect the weakness of global trade, have been dismal in the first half of the year. Global freight volumes fell 1.2 per cent in May, according to the Netherlands bureau for economic policy research. In the past five months, it has turned negative four times, which is extremely rare. The CCFI index for Chinese exports fell to a multi-year low in June, with the china-europe component down 2.5 per cent. CCFI has fallen by 21% since February. The Shanghai export container freight index (SCFI) has fallen to a record low of 42 per cent since the financial crisis. Global trade volumes fell 2 per cent in the first half to their weakest level since June 2014. In may alone it fell by 1.2% from a month earlier.
The shipping industry continued to weaken in the second half of the year. Global container-freight prices then fell in August. Freight prices from Asia to the Mediterranean fell 32.1% in the week to Aug. 23, while prices from Asia to the U.S. west coast and east coast fell 7.9% and 9.9%, respectively. Rates on the world's busiest route have fallen for the third week in a row, falling nearly 60 per cent.
The drop in shipping costs is thought to be due to an increase in the supply of container ships and a drop in global demand for manufactured goods. The international trade picture is not a sign of global prosperity. The current situation is not getting better, but worse.
As things stand, global trade is in trouble and global growth is slowing, but neither QE nor zero interest rates will work because they have been in place for years. There had been some relief that the U.S. economy was growing again, as it did in the second quarter. Now things are getting worse in America too. Us exports fell 5.6 per cent to $895.7bn in the first seven months of the year.
After a 1.6 per cent fall in July, north American shipments in August were off again, falling 1.2 per cent month on month and 4.6 per cent year on year, according to the Cassandra ightindex. Cass explained the decline in north American shipments in August this way: overall, retailers are stocking up for fall sales, but high inventories and an increased inventory-to-sales ratio have led to a drop in orders at the start of the year. For retailers, wholesalers and manufacturers, inventories are higher than they were at the start of the great recession. Sooner or later, businesses will cut inventories, whether by increasing sales or cutting orders. Because of weak demand, companies won't cut orders by increasing sales.
Weak global trade will weigh on global growth for a third consecutive year. Before the current bout of weak global trade, the last time global trade grew more slowly than the global economy was in 1985.
Since a sharp rebound in 2010, global trade has grown at an average of just 3% a year, according to the world trade organization, down from an average of 6% a year from 1983 to 2008. Investors do not expect global trade to rebound to its pre-2008 pace, when it grew twice as fast as economic growth, such as 8.5 per cent in 2006 when the global economy grew 4 per cent.
The world trade organization is expected to cut its forecast for global trade growth in 2015. "It's clear that global trade peaked in 2007," said Scott miller, a trade expert at the washington-based CSIS think tank.